Economist Mary Kelly

To plan for your business for the year ahead, it helps to know what’s going on with the economy. In her return engagement to the ASI Power Summit after speaking last year, Economist Mary Kelly, Ph.D., led a session at this year’s conference filled with data, market insights and practical advice for business leaders trying to navigate uncertainty.

Kelly began by acknowledging the top worries weighing on business leaders’ minds – cybersecurity, inflation, the stock market and supply chain issues. She noted that right now it’s a “complex economic environment” where there’s moderate growth but also persistent – but manageable – inflation, comparing the latter to a “runny nose – annoying, but not debilitating.”

Still, Kelly predicted that we won’t have “stagflation” (where both unemployment and inflation are very high). Even though unemployment is rising and inflation is slightly higher than preferred, “we have neither of those things right now,” she said.

In September, the Fed instituted a modest rate cut, with two additional small cuts projected before the end of the year. Kelly said this was part of a delicate balancing act between monetary and fiscal policy – with the Fed trying to stimulate growth even as the federal government reins in spending.

“Fiscal and monetary policy are playing tug-of-war and trying to balance each other out,” she said.

ASI Media Editor-in-Chief C.J. Mittica caught up with Economist Mary Kelly after her 2025 ASI Power Summit session to discuss the economy, tariffs and AI.

It was impossible for Kelly to ignore the elephant in the room: tariffs, especially in a global trade landscape beset by military and trade wars. She reminded attendees that President Trump’s administration had announced new 100% tariffs on China, sending markets tumbling before recovering over the weekend.

Despite political tensions, Kelly said she believes the U.S. and China will ultimately find common ground. “The reality is, China needs the U.S., and the U.S. needs China,” she emphasized. “If we are trading partners, then we work well together and we don’t have bigger problems.”

And Kelly noted, because America is the wealthiest nation in the world, “we have a tendency to import more than we export, which is good. The reality is there’s zero chance that any of your kids are going to go work in a Nike factory sewing soccer balls because that is not what we do here. We have other opportunities, and we’re very lucky to have that.”

Consumer spending suffered this summer as confidence dropped, but Kelly remains optimistic about the months ahead. “The best thing we have going for us right now, we’re heading into the holiday season,” she said. “And people love to spend during the holidays.”

Labor was a big focus of Kelly’s talk. She noted that while full-time job growth is plateauing, part-time work is rising, especially among older workers and those entering the workforce. “Please, folks,” she urged, “if you’re looking to hire people, think really hard about part-time workers.”

Kelly pointed out several jobs that are growing quickly and could prove fertile ground for promo sales, including medical specialists and those who work in AI, data and cybersecurity. The common denominator? “Specialization, specialization, specialization,” she said. “And this is true in your industry right now too. People want specialization. People want something catered to them.”