Top Economist Talks Economy, Tariffs & How To Adapt
Dr. Mary Kelly delivers data-backed insights to explain why we aren’t in a recession and why there are reasons for optimism.
Questions.
Promotional products professionals – and business pros across industries – have had a lot of them so far in early 2025.
Is the United States headed into a recession? Are tariffs going to send inflation soaring? What is President Donald Trump’s endgame with tariffs? What can promo pros do to keep business moving amid all the uncertainty?
In this Promo Insiders podcast, Dr. Mary Kelly offers insights that help answer those questions and more. Kelly is an internationally renowned economist, U.S. Navy veteran and the CEO of Productive Leaders, a firm dedicated to leadership and economic development. Her talk at the 2024 ASI Power Summit drew rave reviews from attendees, and she is on tap to speak at the 2025 ASI Power Summit in October in Scottsdale, AZ.
Her perspective, rooted in analytical rigor rather than emotion, may provide cause for some cautious optimism. “Even with all the talk of inflation from tariffs, we don’t look like we’re going into a recession,” Kelly told Promo Insiders Host Christopher Ruvo. Listen to the podcast to see why she believes that to be the case.
Key Takeaways
• A Snapshot of the Current Economy: Kelly emphasized that the U.S. is not in a recession, despite negative media coverage. Economic growth was positive in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. Data on inflation, jobs and unemployment suggests that, so far, things are at least stable in 2025, despite stock market drops.
• Trade & Tariffs: Kelly discussed how the international trade and tariff situation is complex and shifting. She explained the specifics of tariffs, such as President Donald Trump’s just-announced push for a 25% tariff on vehicles not made in the U.S. and the incongruity of tariff rates.
• Leverage & Strategy: Kelly views the current presidential administration’s approach to tariffs as a negotiating tactic aimed at achieving certain trade and related objectives. She believes the administration is using tariffs as leverage as part of a broader strategy.
• Perception Matters: The sense of uncertainty many business leaders feel about how things will play out with the economy and tariffs is causing some pauses in spending and investment, a phenomenon that’s likely impacting promo sales to a degree.
• Be Proactive: Despite uncertainty and related challenges, Kelly stressed that promo pros should be digging into relationship building with clients, having consistent and meaningful value-adding touchpoints. She said distributors should proactively engage with customers and suppliers to collaboratively work through challenges.
• Outlook: While uncertainty and related market volatility has affected consumer and business leader confidence, Kelly believes the course will level in the months ahead. “It’s going to be a rocky four or five months,” said Kelly. “But I do feel good about where 2025 is going.”