A preliminary reading for February says that consumer sentiment has improved this month over January, a jump helped by the end of the government shutdown and the Federal Reserve’s stay on hiking interest rates. The news is relevant to promotional products companies, as consumer spending drives the American economy and sentiment can serve as a bellwether for economic conditions that could impact the promo space.

The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment reached 95.5 through the first couple weeks of February, up 4.7% from January. The study’s Current Economic Conditions Index ticked up 1.1% to 110, while the Index of Consumer Expectations rose nearly 8% to 86.2.

Relatedly, consumers were more upbeat about potential inflation, a confidence that could help propel spending. “Consumers' long term inflation expectations fell to the lowest level recorded in the past half century,” said Richard Curtin, the economist who spearheads the University of Michigan’s consumer surveys. “While nominal income expectations remained at modest levels, consumers more frequently expected gains in their inflation-adjusted incomes in early February than at any other time in more than fifteen years.”

While the news on consumer sentiment was good, the word on retail sales from the Census Bureau, released Thursday, was not. The bureau said retail sales dropped 1.2% month-over-month in December. Fears related to the government shutdown, inflation and stock market volatility were likely factors in the decrease. The partial shutdown of the federal government delayed the release of the December numbers.

So we finally got December retail sales, which were delayed because of the government shutdown. And they're really bad - they unexpectedly fell, posting the worst drop in nine years. U.S. yields are falling. https://t.co/jZFD5Qj9FC pic.twitter.com/aUbSNStQWr

— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) February 14, 2019

Still, some analysts questioned the validity of the retail numbers, pointing out that they’re at odds with other studies that showed a strong December and holiday shopping season.

“The Census Bureau’s retail sales numbers “are astonishing, and impossible to square with the Redbook chainstore sales survey, which reported surging sales in December and a record high in the week of Christmas, on the back of the plunge in gasoline prices,” Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote in an email, according to YAHOO! Finance.

Regardless, brighter days could be ahead – something supported by the rise in consumer sentiment.

“These data are so wild that we have to expect hefty upward revisions, but if they stand, they are very unlikely to be representative of the trend over the next few months,” Shepherdson said. “The consumer is no longer enjoying tax cuts or falling gas prices, but that’s no reason to expect a rollover.”