News July 18, 2023
Stat Spotlight: Macro Data Points to Resilient U.S. Economy
As these statistics highlight, inflation has cooled, consumer sentiment has improved, hiring has continued and gross domestic product has grown.
The U.S. economy isn’t ready to tap out.
While recession predictions and anxiety persist, recent macro data that shows cooling inflation, rising wages, increasing consumer sentiment and still-healthy hiring suggests that the economy isn’t dipping into downturn yet. That’s good news for the promotional products industry, whose performance tends to trend in the general direction of gross domestic product (GDP). Here’s a quick breakdown of key economic stats to consider.
3%
The inflation rate increase in U.S. consumer prices between June 2022 and June 2023. That’s near the Federal Reserve’s target 2% range. It also marked the 12th straight month in which the rate of increase slowed, and was the lowest year-over-year inflationary rise since March 2021. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
4.4%
Percentage by which U.S. workers’ average hourly earnings increased between June 2022 and June 2023. That performance outpaced the rate of consumer price inflation during the same period. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
0.1%
The year-over-year increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in June. It was the lowest level of producer price inflation since August 2020. PPI essentially tracks wholesale prices – what businesses pay to suppliers. (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
13%
Rate at which U.S. consumer sentiment increased month over month in July. The index from the University of Michigan tracking sentiment was at its highest level since September 2021.
209,000
Number of jobs the U.S. economy added in June. While that was the slowest month for job creation since December 2020, “overall the job market is outstanding and is getting back to a balanced, sustainable level,” Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC.
2%
Year-over-year increase in the United States’ GDP in the first quarter of 2023. Upwardly revised from an earlier estimate, the increase was announced at the end of June. (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
1.5%
Estimated growth of U.S. GDP in the second quarter of 2023, according to economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.
54%
Probability of a recession in the next six months, according to economists polled recently by The Wall Street Journal. That’s down from the 61% probability predicted in two previous WSJ economist surveys – and was the largest month-over-month percentage point decline since August 2020. Economists expect growth to continue in the current third quarter.