News June 19, 2025
Stat Spotlight: A Look at Where Promo & the Economy Stand Near Q2’s Close
Positives include rising consumer, business and industry sentiment, along with moderate inflation and steady unemployment. Still, there are sour notes on economic growth and more.
Key Takeaways
• Mixed Results: While half of suppliers and nearly half of distributors experienced sales declines in May, optimism ticked up among both industry groups, ASI Research shows.
• Hopeful: Surveys indicate that optimism increased among small-business owners and consumers.
• Downbeat Vibes: A key economic growth forecast for the U.S. was halved, consumer spending dropped in May and there are concerns about how tariff-driven price hikes will impact household budgets later in the year.
It’s fair to say that 2025 has proved a topsy-turvy year for the promotional products industry and U.S. and global economies more broadly. Everything from tariffs, trade war and fast-changing policies out of Washington, D.C., to global military conflicts have complicated commerce and supply chains. As the second quarter approaches its conclusion, where do things stand for promo and the marketplace more broadly? These statistics shed some light.
Promo Performance
46%
of promo distributors reported that sales declined in May 2025 compared to the same month the prior year, with 33% reporting an increase.
50%
of promo suppliers reported that year-over-year sales declined in May 2025, compared to May 2024, with 36% reporting an increase.
93
The Counselor Confidence Index score in May 2025. That was up from 84 in April, though below the baseline reading of 100. The index measures distributor financial health and business optimism.
79
Counselor Confidence score among suppliers in May 2025, up from 77 in April.
46%
Percentage of distributors who, as of May 2025, believe their businesses will increase annual sales this year compared to last.
49%
of suppliers were projecting, as of May 2025, a year-over-year increase in sales.
71%
of suppliers say they have increased prices in 2025 due to tariff impacts/trade war.
-3.6%
The decline in promotional products distributors’ collective sales in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter the prior year.
(ASI Research)
Annual U.S. Economic Growth
2024
2.8%
(Actual)
2025
1.4%
(Projected)
The World Bank, a Washington, D.C.-based development bank, estimates that U.S. economic growth will slow by half in 2025 compared to 2024, a consequence, it says, of tariff policy from President Donald Trump.
(World Bank)
NFIB Small-Business Optimism Index Increases
The National Federation of Independent Business said recent results from its optimism index, which tracks sentiment among small businesses, increased in May and is again above its long-term average.
May 2025 NFIB Optimism Reading
98.8
April 2025 NFIB Optimism Reading
95.8
Long-Term NFIB Optimism Average
98
The Employment Picture
4.2%
U.S. unemployment rate in May 2025, consistent with April 2025.
139,000
Number of nonfarm jobs U.S. employers added in May 2025, above estimates but below the downwardly revised 147,000 the month prior.
62,000
Number of jobs the healthcare sector added in May 2025, making it the market where the most job growth occurred.
3.9%
U.S. wage growth in May 2025 compared to the same month the year prior.
(U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Consumer Spending
0.9%
Month-over-month decline in U.S. retail spending in May 2025 compared to April 2025, a second straight monthly decline and the largest since January.
Annual Rise
Despite monthly declines, retail spending was up 3.3% in May 2025 compared to May 2024.
Insight:
“Tariff announcements have had a clear impact on the timing of large-ticket purchases, notably autos, but there are few signs yet that tariffs are leading to a general pullback in consumer spending,” Michael Pearce, deputy chief economist at Oxford Economics, told Reuters. “We expect a more marked slowdown to take hold in the second half of the year, as tariffs begin to weigh on real disposable incomes.”
(U.S. Commerce Department)
Consumer Sentiment Rises
16%
Month-over-month rise in the preliminary reading for June 2025 of a nationally watched consumer sentiment index – the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers.
6 Months Ago
That was the last time the index increased month over month.
Down About 20%
That, despite the June monthly increase, is how much the sentiment index remains down in June from December 2024.
(University of Michigan)
Inflation Gauges
2.4%
Increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May 2025 compared to May 2024. That was in line with economist expectations, but still slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. CPI is an inflation gauge that measures what consumers pay.
2.6%
Year-over-year increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) in May 2025. PPI is an inflation gauge that essentially measures what’s paid at the wholesale level.
(U.S. Labor Department)